Win rate isn't everything: the R:R that beats it

Traders obsess over win rate, but a high win rate can still lose money, and a low one can print. The truth is in the combination of win rate and reward-to-risk (R:R).

The math that surprises people

With a 1:2 reward-to-risk, you only need to win ~34% of the time to break even. Win 45% at 1:2 and you're clearly profitable. Meanwhile, a 70% win rate at 1:0.5 (cutting winners early) barely breaks even and dies from costs.

Why traders sabotage their R:R

The urge to "lock in" a small profit and the pain of giving back gains make you close winners too soon and let losers run: the exact opposite of what math rewards. High win rate feels good; it isn't the goal.

Track average win vs average loss

If your average win isn't clearly bigger than your average loss, your R:R is broken, whatever your win rate. TradeDiscipline surfaces both so you can see if you're cutting winners short, the most common hidden leak.