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June 18, 2026 · 4 min

Win rate isn't everything: the R:R that beats it

Traders obsess over win rate, but a high win rate can still lose money, and a low one can print. The truth is in the combination of win rate and reward-to-risk (R:R).

The math that surprises people

With a 1:2 reward-to-risk, you only need to win ~34% of the time to break even. Win 45% at 1:2 and you're clearly profitable. Meanwhile, a 70% win rate at 1:0.5 (cutting winners early) barely breaks even and dies from costs.

Why traders sabotage their R:R

The urge to "lock in" a small profit and the pain of giving back gains make you close winners too soon and let losers run: the exact opposite of what math rewards. High win rate feels good; it isn't the goal.

Track average win vs average loss

If your average win isn't clearly bigger than your average loss, your R:R is broken, whatever your win rate. TradeDiscipline surfaces both so you can see if you're cutting winners short, the most common hidden leak.

Turn theory into practice

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Risk disclosure: TradeDiscipline is a trading journal, a tracking and discipline tool: not a broker, and not an investment adviser. Trading carries a risk of losing your capital whatever the instrument (stocks, indices, commodities, futures, forex, crypto-assets).

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones' financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.