Closing winners too early? The math that shows what it costs you

The trade moves your way. It covers half the distance to your target, then pauses. A small voice says "take it before it turns". You close. Ten minutes later, price hits your target without you.

Why we cut too early

Losing a gain you "had" hurts more than never having it. That's loss aversion: an open profit that melts feels like a loss. So we cash in to feel safe. And conversely, we often let losses run so we don't have to make them real.

The math

Take a method planned with 100 of risk and a 200 target. With a 40% win rate:

• Following the plan: 0.40 × 200 − 0.60 × 100 = +20 per trade.
• Cutting wins at 100: 0.40 × 100 − 0.60 × 100 = −20 per trade.

Same method, same win rate. The only difference is your hand on the mouse. To be profitable again while cutting at 100, you'd need a win rate above 50%.

Solutions that work

1. Set your target at entry and let the order do the work. Don't watch every tick.
2. If you want to lock in, do it with a written rule: partial close at 1R, stop to break-even. Not on a hunch.
3. Measure it. Compare realised gains with the planned target on your winning trades.

What your journal can tell you

TradeDiscipline compares your exits with your planned take profit and your strategy. The coach spots whether your winners are systematically cut before the target, and how much that reflex cost you over the month.

See what your exits cost you.